Bill Brady's Fuzzy Math Gets Fuzzier

Bill Brady (R-IL)

Republican math is like a treasure trove of wonderful things you've only heard of in fairy tales but are promised to you by politicians to make your life better. Bill Brady's formula for "reining" in Illinois' massive $13 billion deficit is no different.

First Brady tells voters that he wants to cut 10% across the board. With a $53 billion state budget that would equal about $5.3 billion in cuts. Alrighty then. Assuming he'll do what he says that takes the deficit down to $7.7 billion, right? Well not so fast. Brady admitted just a few weeks ago that his plan to slash 10% across the board and cut taxes would actually increase the deficit by at least a billion dollars the first year. How is that you might ask? Well if you cut $5 billion from the state budget it will lead to massive layoffs of state employees. Such layoffs lead to fewer people paying state income taxes, which in turn leads to smaller revenues for the state increasing the deficit by at least a billion dollars-- maybe more.  And if  you cut taxes on top of that you get, yet again, even smaller revenue.  Not rocket science.

So we have Brady cutting taxes, cutting $5 billion from the budget and still increasing the deficit.  Good work.  But now Brady realizes that you just can't slash 10% from the top of the budget.  Some items can't be cut, like items involving federal funding or debt services.  Brady tells Crain's editorial board that only $45 billion can be subject to his 10% across the board cuts, leaving the state with an $8.5 billion deficit before his self-admitted one billion dollar increase takes effect because of his policies. Adding in his deficit increase, the deficit is at least $9.5 billion.  Great job.

Unfortunately Bill Brady's Bush-style accounting doesn't end there.  State budget experts say Brady's $45 billion number is way off.  After you figure in all the untouchable items that can't legally be cut by 10% the state budget stands at about $30 billion.  Ten percent cut from that would equal $3 billion.  Add back the one billion Brady says his policies will add to the deficit and you get $2 billion.  So we go from a $13 billion deficit to an $11 billion deficit and huge amounts of layoffs statewide.  Brilliant!

The only other way to come close to balancing the budget, which Brady claims he can do, is to cut some programs and agencies by 20% instead of 10%.  And Brady says that may have to happen.  In reality even 20% cuts won't balance the budget unless there is a new revenue stream (i.e., tax increase) and a huge one to make up for the loss that will result in thousands of people being laid off because of the 20% cuts.

He has no clue really.  We are only supposed to take him at his word that he will cut taxes, shrink the deficit and cut spending all the while making Illinois more prosperous and business friendly.  And all this from a millionaire that paid no federal income taxes last year.