Reasons Libya is Not Iraq

Juan Cole has a list of ten reasons why Libya 2011 is not Iraq 2003. I probably agree with everything except number 10.

10. Iraq in 2002-3 no longer posed a credible threat to its neighbors. A resurgent Qaddafi in Libya with petroleum billions at his disposal would likely attempt to undermine the democratic experiments in Tunisia and Egypt, blighting the lives of millions.

Okay I don't necessarily disagree with it either. I'll just add Iraq didn't pose a credible threat to anyone except itself because of the very effective no-fly zone and the UN sanctions that had been in place for over 10 years. The result was a humanitarian catastrophe inside of Iraq. It left Iraq divided into three parts all largely non-self-sufficient for basic needs. The Kurdish north, which enjoyed a great deal of autonomy. The Saddam stronghold in the center. And a Shia south.

I say this because the UN authorization currently in place against Libya does about the same thing. The no-fly zone protects the north. While the rebels hold out mostly in the west. Where I assume if the whole country doesn't collapse, they will enjoy a great deal of autonomy much like the Kurds in Iraq. It's a perfect mess. And 10 years from now we'll have to repeat Libya just like we did Iraq.