She is the base's base, and her appeal, in my view, is all about identity politics.I'm not counting her out. She's in. She's going to run, no doubt about it.
She represents no real coherent set of ideas; merely what she would call the "real America", i.e. white and rural. I also think race is at play here. I think many people under-estimated the willingness of Americans to vote for a black president before his election, but equally under-estimated the impact of an actual black president after his Inaugural actually doing things and exercizing authority. I see Palin as a kind of cultural antibody to the future America Obama represents. And if the next election focuses on culture and not economics - or culture because of economic stagnation - I would not count her out.
The Republican base believes President Obama is illegitimate in large part because of people like Sarah Palin who is paid millions of dollars to go on Fox News and stir the base with crazy conspiracy theories about the president's birth place, his policies and/or his character. That's her role. It's not going to change. It will actually get worse the closer we get to 2012.
If I've learned anything since the Summer of Hate, it's not to underestimate the Republican Crazy. Palin will stir up what she thinks is "real America," the people most prone to believing her lies, and will have plenty of help from right wing media sources like Fox and Hate Radio. As Sully mentions, the future America Obama represents is simply one that is not governed by Republicans. Sure it has lots to do with a black man making decisions, but worse it's a black man that belongs to the enemy camp, the Democratic Party. There's no worse future scenario to Republicans than that. If it means stirring a crazy base that is full of hatred, racism and 8th grade diplomas, then the GOP will do it and not think twice about it.
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