Ron Paul Will Need To Do Way More Than Win Iowa

Yesterday The Fold Blog made a huge astronomical prediction that Ron Paul will be victorious in the Iowa caucus early next month.  Judging from some emails it seems the term "victory" as used in the post was confusing.

By victory do I mean he'll finish first?  Or runner up?  After all a second place finish in Iowa is a huge victory for Paul who has been written off a thousand times already.  Well, I don't know what I meant by using the word victory.  I suppose I meant he'll be victorious.  Though I don't think that clears anything up.  So I'll come right out and say that The Fold Blog believes Ron Paul will win the Iowa caucus.  I hope that clears up the confusion.

After winning Iowa, I don't see him doing anything else.  He's just not that popular and his ideas for this country are even less popular than him.  His campaign has put millions into Iowa and have worked up a really good ground game.  Plus caucuses are perfect for really loud supporters.  People who are more passionate about their candidate are extra likely to draw others to their side of the room.  This is, after all, how a caucus works.  Paul stands a really good chance of having very loud supporters screaming at others to come join their Liberty Revolution!

The rest of the early primary states Paul is way less popular.  South Carolina he's currently polling in third place at about 9%.  New Hampshire, he's in third place as well.  And in Florida he's at a very distant third with 8%.  All those states are much larger than Iowa and are primary states, which means-- if I'm not mistaken-- GOP rules weigh primary states more than caucus states.  Paul would have to finish much better in SC, FL and NH than single digits if he even stands at chance at the nomination.

It's entirely possible to win Iowa and then the next week lose New Hampshire, the week after that lose South Carolina and then the week after that lose Florida and be finished.  That means by February, unless he manages a couple second place finishes after Iowa, Ron Paul will stand no chance at the nomination once again.  In fact, winning Iowa is not that great of a bellwether for the GOP nomination.  Take a look at past results:

1980: George H. W. Bush won Iowa with 32%.  Reagan won nomination despite losing Iowa.
1988: Bob Dole won Iowa with 37% .  George H. W. Bush won nomination even though he finished third in Iowa.
2008: Mike Huckabee won Iowa huge with 34%.  John McCain won nomination even though he finished 4th in Iowa with only 13%.

Of course if Paul does win Iowa, the Paultards will claim that this is proof he should be the nominee and that they are being screwed out of the coronation by a vast conspiracy contrived by the media, the GOP itself, Barack Obama, Big Government and people who hate freedom. Even though history shows people win Iowa and lose the nomination all the time, it won't matter to them.  It all will be one big conspiracy against Freedom Fighter Ron Paul.