Count Me As Skeptical

(CNN) -- President Barack Obama recast the U.S. fight against terrorism as no longer a "boundless global war" but a targeted effort to dismantle specific extremist networks.

He said America was at a "crossroads" and should no longer see it as a "self-defeating" perpetual fight, but one that must at some point end, "like all wars."

Obama said "the core of al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan is on a path to defeat,'' but its affiliates elsewhere pose dangers. He also touched on new overseas and homegrown threats, and explained publicly the use of drones against terror suspects overseas.

For some reason I'm not grasping this.  I do agree the perpetual war agenda is self-defeating, ridiculous and very costly.  But I fail to see how "affiliates else pose dangers" as a refocus of the war is any different in the long term, perpetually speaking of course.

No doubt the Obama administration has waged a much more effective war against al Qeada.  There's no comparing Bush's invasion of a country with nothing to do with 9/11 to Obama locating and killing bin Laden.  No comparison whatsoever.  With that said, the war on terrorism has never been a struggle of military might.  It's always been a struggle of thoughts, ideas, and modernization. Let's hope another refocus of this 12 year war is finally defined in such terms.

First Black President Jinx

In 1993 Republicans claimed there would be no way Bill Clinton would get re-elected.  Back then, Republicans argued, Dems had stolen the election by implanting Ross Perot-- and also because the Clintons were murdering people that disagreed with them.  When in 1996 Clinton easily coasted to re-election and had successfully turned the economy around, Republicans still claimed that he wasn't a real president and was going to destroy the country.  So, just like all good and faithful patriots do, they created controversy after controversy to bring down his presidency.  We all forget, they came very close to doing so.

Fast forward to today.  Very similar situations.  A Democratic president stuck to clean up the economic mess his very unpopular Republican predecessor left for him.  And don't forget the constant crying of Republicans calling him a fake president that wants to destroy America.  It's all very similar.  Just like in 1997, when Republicans couldn't win at the ballot, they sought to remove from office a popular president by creating scandal after scandal.  Except this time there's a problem.  Rush Limbaugh, the leader of the GOP, concludes it's impossible to remove the first black president of the Untied States.  This really has to throw a wrench in their plans.

Obama 2.0

“[O]ur journey is not complete until our wives, our mothers, and daughters can earn a living equal to their efforts. Our journey is not complete until our gay brothers and sisters are treated like anyone else under the law - for if we are truly created equal, then surely the love we commit to one another must be equal as well. Our journey is not complete until no citizen is forced to wait for hours to exercise the right to vote. Our journey is not complete until we find a better way to welcome the striving, hopeful immigrants who still see America as a land of opportunity; until bright young students and engineers are enlisted in our workforce rather than expelled from our country. Our journey is not complete until all our children, from the streets of Detroit to the hills of Appalachia to the quiet lanes of Newtown, know that they are cared for, and cherished, and always safe from harm.”

Staying Home

For a lot of reasons, I won't be in DC this weekend celebrating the president's second inaugural.  No, I haven't jumped ship.  It's mainly because I would rather sit in my warm house and watch it on television.  I do have fond memories from his first inaugural which you can read about here.  For those that are attending, good luck and stay warm.

It's all yours big guy.  Hope I didn't F'-it up too bad for ya!

23

President Obama signed 23 Executive Orders today meant to curb gun violence in America.  For reference, here are the Orders and the proposals issued by the administration.

Even with today's 23 EO's, President Obama still has fewer than former President Bush at the same point in his first term.  Bush II = 173, Obama = 167.

But remember, President Obama is the only president since Ike to win more than 51% of the vote two times.  He also currently enjoys a steady 54% approval rating. So this can only mean one thing in the Republican Fantasy World: Obama is the only black president to ever issue an Executive Order and he must be stopped!!

Bill Bennett Plays Imaginary Fiscal Conservative

As always, we are forced to take the tough-talking, fiscal stewards of the Republican Party very seriously.  After all, they pride themselves as the last bit of fiscal sanity in an age of out of control spending that has caused huge amounts of debt to pile up.  Except that spending and the deficit have actually shrunk and leveled off, they would be right.

Very Serious Fiscal Conservative Bill Bennett writes:

If $16 trillion of national debt and the huge deficits each year aren't spending problems, then what is? The United States most certainly has a spending problem. For the president to insist otherwise is dumbfounding but at the same time entirely consistent with his policies.

Eeeewwww Bennett is so tough.  He is such a fiscally responsible person that he surely must know the "huge deficits" he claims to be so concerned about were created by George W. Bush and the GOP.  Barack Obama has shrunk the budget deficit from Bush's all-time high.  As for the debt, no president could have inherited a $1.4 trillion budget deficit and kept debt from piling up.  No one.  If Bush and Bennett's Republican Party had not left President Obama the worst financial situation in history, maybe Bennett would have something to complain about.  But the facts are Obama did not create the debt problem, the deficit problem, the unemployment problem, the GDP problem, or the spending problem.  He inherited all of it from Bush and since Obama has taken office, every single category has gotten better.

But enough of my rant.  Let's see just how fiscally responsible Bennett truly is.  In order to do that, we must look at raw spending data.  So, again, the trusty little graph we've used over and over again shows us just how fiscally insane Bill Bennett really is.

Clearly, as anyone with eyes can see, when spending was increasing at the most rapid rates since WWII, Bill Bennett never complained, never warned about fiscal doom, never did anything.  Over $1 TRILLION of new spending was added to the budget in 7 years and Bill Bennett was silent.  What would cause Bennett to justify such huge spikes in spending then but now be sooooo concerned about spending when it has slowed at the lowest rates in 60 years?

Easy answer actually.  Bill Bennett doesn't care about spending.  He doesn't care about deficits or the debt.  Bush doubled the federal debt and Reagan tripled it and Bennett never said a word.  But Obama inherits over $1 trillion of debt every year and Bennett is stroking out pretending he actually cares.

This is modern Republicanism.  They love spending.  They love debt and care not one bit about deficits.  They just don't want Democrats doing the spending.  Bush increases spending, crashes the economy, issues 8 tax payer funded bailouts and Republicans loved it.  As you can see from the chart, they couldn't get enough of it.  Not until a Democrat takes the White House does spending level off.  And it is with this leveling off that Republicans like Bennett first call it a crisis.  It's truly insane.

However, more must be said of CNN for letting Bennett pretend to be fiscally responsible and trash the president.  In order to be remotely considered "fair" the whole country is forced to accept people who believe the Earth is flat as Very Serious People.  We're all doomed as long as the media doesn't give a rip.

Boys Club

Republicans and the media alike have every reason to call the Obama administration out for failing to nominate one single female in his top four cabinet positions.  Had the GOP done this, they would have been hounded for months. Hold yourself to your own standard.  It's hypocrisy if you don't.

Fold Blog Misses by 0.14%

I was oh so close.  Even closer than Nate Silver who put the president at a meager 50.8%.  I nailed the Electoral College as perfectly as anyone could, surpassing the greatness of Nate Silver who had the president winning 313.

My forecast was 332 and 51.2%.  The tally turned into the federal government last week has President Obama at 51.06% and 332 Electoral Votes.  I missed a perfect game by 0.14%.  Suck on those truck nuts!

So once again Barack Obama got more than 51% of the vote.  This has only happened one time since Eisenhower.  I know what you're thinking.  George W. Bush, right?  Nope.  Sorry but that dude didn't even beat Al Gore.  Barack Hussein Obama is the only president since Ike to get more than 51% of the vote twice.

This can only mean one thing for Republicans.  Obama is obviously not very popular and hates America.

Thoughts on the Deal

I would have much preferred raising tax rates at the original $250K like the president has been saying for over a year now rather than the one we got.  In the grand scheme of things, it makes little difference in terms of revenue.  It matters more because it's what the president said he would not budge nor compromise.  He did.

Other than that, I have no other disappointments in the Fiscal Cliff deal.  I don't see how the president's hand would have been any stronger weeks from now than it was on Tuesday.  There was no need to allow UI to expire.  Getting an extension for an entire year is a huge win for the president and not enough has been said about it.  He deserves credit and if it cost him $100 billion in revenue over 10 years then it was something he considered worth doing.

My take on all this is that Dems are just unhappy with the president moving on an item he claimed to be unmovable.  But that's what compromises are, that's what democracy is.  We just had a president that was said to be immovable on issues. He didn't compromise, it was his way or no way.  If you didn't do what his administration wanted you were with the terrorists.  He presided over the largest economic collapse in 80 years and created a $1.4 trillion deficit.  He never once had a majority approval rating his entire second term and left office the most disliked and unpopular president since Hoover.  We absolutely don't aspire to be anything like that.  I'll take Barack Obama's governing style any day.  The thing we need to do right now to help our deficit the most is to get people back to work. There are no more excuses.  People have to have jobs.

GDP by President, 1981-Present

First term
Reagan 3.31
Bush 2.16
Clinton 3.34
George W. Bush 2.29
Obama 1.55

Second Term
Reagan 3.74
George W. Bush 1.03
Clinton 4.28

Avg of two terms
Reagan 3.53
Clinton 3.81
George W. Bush 1.66

Looks like since 1981, President Obama has the worst first-term growth rate of the five presidents.

Romney Barely Outperforms McCain

What if I had told you before the election that Mitt Romney would only get 800,000 more votes than John McCain?  I would have been laughed at forever, right?  But right now in the vote count, that's exactly where Mittens is at.  Barely surpassing the pitiful performance of John McCain.

Turnout is down about 2.2% from last election also.  This can almost be entirely figured in to the hurricane hitting the northeast just days before the election.  In fact, New York and New Jersey, the two states hit the hardest, both show a correlated drop in turnout.  It's probably safe to assume the drop in turnout from those two states greatly hurt the president way more so than Romney.  This election was just never really that close.  A hurricane hit the two states where Barack Obama's support is over 60% and he still wins by almost 5 million votes and 126 electoral votes.  Romney never stood a chance really.

Boehner Concedes: Rich Will Get Tax Increase

Barack Obama handily won reelection on a promise to raise taxes on people making more than $250,000/year.  And now the Speaker of the House has conceded it will happen.

"We have got to cut spending and I believe it is appropriate to put revenues on the table," Boehner told reporters on Wednesday. "Now, the revenues that we are putting on the table are going to come from guess who? The rich."

I'm one who supports all tax rates going back to Clinton rates.  I have no problems seeing my taxes go up in a time of desperate fiscal calamity.  An increase on the 2% of Americans who make a rather lofty sum is also fine with me.  But we also need spending cuts.  So that's the next round of debate between the two parties. What to cut, where to cut and how much.

The public, however, overwhelmingly sides with the president on the issues of increasing taxes.  One of the latest polls specifically focusing on increasing taxes for people making over $250K shows 48% of the people polled support it.  Forty-eight percent, as you'll recall, is more support than Romney got in the presidential election.  hehehehehe

The wealthy are the base for government policy and government programs

Gov. John Sununu laments on President Obama's ability to turnout the vote.

“They aggressively got out the base of their base, the base of their base that’s dependent, to a great extent economically, on government policy and government programs,” Sununu said during a forum with two other Republican former governors, Steve Merrill and Craig Benson, at Concord’s Grappone Conference Center.

Not only is this a rather ridiculous and totally false claim, it strikes at the heart of what Republicans truly believe.  For sure Mitt Romney's "47% comment" is the lede of this line of thinking.  That government moochers are sticking it to the wealthy or even middle class families who work every day and pay taxes are the people Obama is turning out and will benefit the most from his presidency.  But the president got over 51% of the vote from across all demographics, tax brackets and ideologies.  Yet that still misses the simple fact that this Republican line of thinking, a thinking that has morphed their party into a very radicalized caricature of its former self, suggests that only poor people depend on "government policy and government programs."  Nothing could be further from the truth.

As Spinner and I were discussing in this comment thread, wealthy people depend upon the government just as much if not more than the poor.  The wealthy people working and running the financial sector in this country are the most government-dependent people on the face of this earth.  Check this out:

**All of George W. Bush's bailouts from 2001-2009 total more than $1.78 trillion.  All but $43 billion went to the financial sector. [that doubles Obama's stimulus spending by the way]

**In addition, the financial sector received $7.7 trillion in secret loans from the federal reserve in 2008.

Add those two together and it totals about $9 trillion in federal "government policy and government programs" totally designed to benefit the rich.  That is by far more aid, more food stamps, more anything than poor people get in this country. It's the equivalent of three years of government spending on nothing but very wealthy people.  The poor could only be so lucky.

*Editor's note:

In the comment section, Spinner makes a very good distinction as to what he is and is not agreeing to.

"Chris - just as I don't want to equate being part of the 47% with being a moocher, we should not equate being wealthy with being one either. So I did not say and do not agree that "wealthy people depend upon the government just as much if not more than the poor". Most wealthy people do not derive their income and wealth from government assistance or government provided direct advantage."

There was no intention to misrepresent his views.  My wording was confusing and his point is well taken and noted.  Please read my reply also because I do disagree on the substance of utilizing government programs as being any different for the rich as it is the poor.

Quickies: Circle the Wagons Edition

Remember how the Fox News-led right wing promised everyone the poll numbers were skewed in favor of Obama?  Remember how they promised us a Romney landslide, a Republican mandate for the future?  Remember how they even setup websites dedicated to unskewing the polls Now that reality has set in and they were made fools in front of the whole world, guess how they have decided to move forward?  By claiming Obama only won because of rampant voter fraud.

Now remember point number #3 I wrote the day before the election detailing Republican claims that cost them the election?  Yep, voter fraud.  No I'm not that smart.  They're just that dumb.

Republican Preacher Man Pat Robertson told his faithful followers that he had talked to God days before the election and God had told him his blessed Party, the GOP, would not only win the White House but sweep Congress.  Turns out the voice he was hearing in his head wasn't God's.  Robertson chalks it up to missing God.  "So many of us miss God. I won't get into great detail about elections but I sure did miss it. I thought I heard from God; I thought I had heard clearly from God. What happened? "You ask God, 'How did I miss it?' Well, we all do and I've had a lot of practice."

Jon Chait does a superb job of completely dismantling Republican rhetoric before and after the election.  Here at The Fold Blog, we call that making them Own It. 

President Obama was reelected by a large margin.  His Party added seats in the House and Senate where they strengthened their majority in the latter.  In Republican John Beohner's world this means the president's signature legislation must be done away with quickly.  They haven't learned a thing.

Obama's Bag of Goodies

For the record, I'm a little ticked about the "gifts" the Obama administration handed out to get votes.  His defeated opponent tells us that these "gifts" amount to trillions of dollars.  I must be a huge fool.  I voted for Obama and I got not one single gift.  Not even a terrorist fist jab.  I hope impeachment proceedings will soon follow.

Obama Now at 51.2%

It's official.  Florida has been called for Obama.  Not that it is a surprise to anyone.

With that, my prediction of 332-206 is, well, precise.  I called every state correctly. Do notice, too, that votes are still being counted and as of this writing Obama is up by over 3 million votes and officially has 51.2% of the vote.  Yeah, you know where I'm going on this.  I called that too.  I even beat Nate Silver on that one.  People thought I was nuts.  I even had people tell me that Obama would win the electoral but lose the popular.  Actually there are still people saying that right now.  It's called complete derangement.  But I am right, I swear I'm right, swear I knew it all along.

It must be restated, probably over and over, that Obama's reelection was by bigger and deeper margins than George Bush's 2004 "mandate" election.  Anytime you hear someone say Obama barely won or did so by the skin of his teeth, they're lying.

It's Already Begun, No Decency Whatsoever

Here's what a mandate looks like to Republicans.

286 Electoral Votes, +3.5 million popular vote- Bush 2004

Here's what "got no mandate" the country is "divided" won by the "skin of his teeth" looks like to Republicans.

332 Electoral Votes, +2.9 million popular vote (with votes still being counted)- Obama 2012

No doubt they are truly insane.  Also, there's no doubt Obama's popular vote totals will continue to grow as the days go on.  There are still millions of votes left uncounted from overseas, absentees and other set-aside ballots that get counted last.  There's no doubt he'll reach +3.5 million plurality on the popular vote, which was more than enough in 2004 to be a huge mandate for George W. Bush.

Some Thoughts

Now for some commentary...

It's amazing to watch the right wing collapse from the results.  The only people in the world who thought Romney would win were Fox News viewers.  To them the race wouldn't even be close.  All their pundits, including Rove, Dick Morris and all the other nutjobs, predicted huge Romney returns.  Their entire premise was the polls were skewed and that Romney would outperform every single poll in the nation.  This just wasn't their hope.  It was their reality.  There's no better culmination of their false reality crashing down than the complete meltdown on Fox News by George Bush's architect seconds after their network called it for Obama.  It was a train wreck for them and they know it.

However, in the bitter wake of defeat, the GOP-- led by Fox News-- will only double-down their craziness.   I take that back.  They will triple-down their craziness.  They doubled-down after losing in 2008.  This newest defeat will send those who went over the edge of reason four years ago into the dark chambers of historical parody.

For them it is a wake up call; but not the one you may think.  They didn't lose because they live in an alternative universe that bares little resemblance to reality.  No they believe they lost because they just weren't conservative enough.  Romney, the man who invented Obamacare, did not encompass their core values.  He was a flawed candidate who simply made it as far as he did because he's extremely wealthy.  Republicans will still believe we are a center-right nation.  That we are more conservative than progressive. In only a few minutes we will hear how this huge reelection victory for President Obama is actually a victory for conservatism.  Their world will change none.  In fact, they will become even crazier.  I think there will be less of them as is natural after losing.  But those who remain in the Republican Fantasy World will be the true Mad Hatters of the 21st century.

** In case you haven't noticed, my map was dead on.  I picked every state correctly.  As I type this Obama is up 50.4% to 48% in the popular vote too.  I put him at 51.2%.  He'll get there, trust me.  There are still hundreds of thousands of votes left to count [actually about 10 million still to count].   Why would anyone ever doubt The Fold Blog?

** Probably something I haven't mentioned in a while is the fate of Obamacare.  Last nigh'ts huge win seals it forever.  Just like Medicare, people will grow to love it and it will become one of the most popular government programs.  Turning the economy around was huge as well.  But Obamacare will be his legacy.

The Day Before

Such a close race.  Dare I make any predictions?  Sure, not a problem.  Obama 332, 51.2%.

It's possible he won't get to 51.2% popular vote by tomorrow night.  But he will get 270 electoral votes and by the time the votes are certified I think his popular vote total will be 51.2%.

Easily Obtainable Data Destroys Fox News' Fantasy World

Yesterday I made my journey to the Republican Fantasy World to get a glimpse of how things are going for the people who believe Iraq had something to do with 9/11 and that George Bush was a popular president.  Let me just say I wasn't surprised in the least.

Their big story was what they believed was a huge Obama flip flop on turning the economy around.  As only Fox News could:

The president has long been making the case that he just needs more time to finish the job he started. At an August 2011 fundraiser, he said: "When I said change we can believe in, I didn't say change we can believe in tomorrow." 

The claim, though, that "we knew from the beginning" it would take more than one term is a departure from what Obama told NBC's Matt Lauer in February 2009. At the time, Obama said, "A year from now, I think people are going to see that we're starting to make some progress, but there's still going to be some pain out there. If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition."

So in February 2009 President Obama told Matt Lauer that if by 2010 people don't start seeing some progress being made in the economy and if for sure in three years progress hasn't been made then there will be a proposition made of a one-term president. This is proof to Fox News and Republican voters that Obama said himself he should only have one-term and deserves not one more day to continue his policies because in their world things are worse.  Actually in their world, things are the worst they have ever been and we are on the verge of economic collapse.

Economic data, however, suggests the complete opposite of what Fox News is reporting.

Since Obama made those comments to Matt Lauer in Feb. 2009:

*the unemployment rate has fallen from 8.3% to 7.9%.  That's progress.

*the Dow has increased 6,200 points or 85%.  That's the largest gain in the Dow since FDR.  That's progress.

*GDP has risen 28.2% to an all time high.  That's progress!

*corporate profits are at their highest point in history.  Dare I say PROGRESS?

*And the deficit is smaller now than when Obama took office.

Obama has turned the economy around.  It's plain as day.  There's not one single economic indicator that isn't better now than when Obama took office.  To deny this is to deny reality.  And that's exactly what Fox News is doing.  They want their viewers to believe that things are no better or are worse off than February 2009.  There's not one single ounce of truth to such a notion, however.  Anyone who breathes oxygen can easily see that Fox News has a vested interest in lying to its viewers and creating a Fantasy World for them to exist with their own set of made up facts.

The president absolutely lived up to what he told Matt Lauer in February 2009. Progress has been made.  The economy has definitely turned around.  Things are better now than in February 2009, by a long shot actually.

*Update:

I drew a picture to help those who still can't comprehend.

**Update:

To see just how bad things were in February 2009 check this Free Enterprise post out. Consumer confidence was at 37.7 it's worst measure ever at that time.  Today it's almost doubled to 72.2, its best measure in 4 years.

New home sales decreased 15% to 331,000 units.  Today new home sales are at 389,000, up 15% since February 2009.

Again, just more data proving progress has been made since Obama's Matt Lauer interview in February 2009.  It would take an idiot to suggest otherwise.  Or someone who refuses to live in reality, which would be idiotic in every sense of the word.