Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts

2016, WTF?

I suppose if I must make a comment about 2016 I'll go on record as saying this:
Anyone talking about 2016 right now is stupid.  The problems we face in this country right now are immediate, real and should not be clouded by media talk of an event over 4 yeas away.  It's dumb.
Hillary will be almost 70. Too old. I'm thinking Mario Cuomo should be given more attention for 2016 than what he's getting. But he's old as heck too. On the GOP side, I have no clue. They would be idiots to nominate Jeb Bush. So that's probably would they'll do.

It's all about limiting Dem Votes

There's only one reason the GOP-controlled Ohio Secretary of State has appealed a lower courts ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court to limit early voting in that state.  Limiting early voting is all about keeping Democrats from the polls.  There's really no other reason. 

*Update:

A nice pretty picture proving my point.

here's the source

Deep Thought

But I thought only Democrats rigged elections????????  Could Fox News be lying to me again?

More Proof Why Our Primary Process is Terrible

So I guess Rick Santorum won Iowa.  This is probably information we could have used on Jan. 3rd.  Or probably not.  In 2008 Huckabee won Iowa and that did nothing for him.  Bob Dole won it in '88 and it proved very little in justifying his campaign to Republican voters.  Given that head-count caucusing is error-prone and a terrible way to begin a presidential cycle for a country of 310 million people, why can't we stop with the nonsense and begin utilizing a primary system that actually means something?

I know, I'm asking way too much.

Why Bachmann Really Had to Pull Out of the Race


The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice-President chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows:

Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.

No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

The President shall, at stated Times, receive for his Services, a Compensation, which shall neither be increased nor diminished during the Period for which he shall have been elected, and he shall not receive within that Period any other Emolument from the United States, or any of them.

Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:

"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."
------

Notice, too, that at the time of writing "a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution," meant only land-owning white men.  Black people were not citizens.  And women were merely second-class citizens who could neither hold office nor vote, as evidenced by the constant use of the male pronouns.  

None of this original language of the Constitution has been changed.  We simply use our 21st century vernacular to imply that women can now be president.  Meaning we are gender-blind when we read it.  Bachmann, however, being the strict original Constitutionalist that she says she is, finally recognized that the Founders' intent was for women to remain at home and men to vote, hold office and be president.  Thankfully she had time to realize this before she was elected to the highest office in the land; an office the Christian-inspired men who wrote the Constitution didn't intend for her to have.


So Long Iowa

We've come full circle in Iowa since summer.  GOP voters in that state have tested out every candidate in hopes of finding someone else but Mitt Romney to no avail.  You know it's bad when Gingrich and Ron Paul got spend a week in the sun as possible front-runners.  And now we're seeing a Santorum surge???

Alas, though, all signs are pointing to a Romney win tonight in what is probably the most pathetic excuse ever as a gauge of national importance.  In other words, the Iowa caucus is pointless.  It's garbage.  I don't care who wins tonight.  What we should do is look at the people who are actually going to show up and vote for these clowns and commit them to psychiatric care.

Ron Paul Will Need To Do Way More Than Win Iowa

Yesterday The Fold Blog made a huge astronomical prediction that Ron Paul will be victorious in the Iowa caucus early next month.  Judging from some emails it seems the term "victory" as used in the post was confusing.

By victory do I mean he'll finish first?  Or runner up?  After all a second place finish in Iowa is a huge victory for Paul who has been written off a thousand times already.  Well, I don't know what I meant by using the word victory.  I suppose I meant he'll be victorious.  Though I don't think that clears anything up.  So I'll come right out and say that The Fold Blog believes Ron Paul will win the Iowa caucus.  I hope that clears up the confusion.

After winning Iowa, I don't see him doing anything else.  He's just not that popular and his ideas for this country are even less popular than him.  His campaign has put millions into Iowa and have worked up a really good ground game.  Plus caucuses are perfect for really loud supporters.  People who are more passionate about their candidate are extra likely to draw others to their side of the room.  This is, after all, how a caucus works.  Paul stands a really good chance of having very loud supporters screaming at others to come join their Liberty Revolution!

The rest of the early primary states Paul is way less popular.  South Carolina he's currently polling in third place at about 9%.  New Hampshire, he's in third place as well.  And in Florida he's at a very distant third with 8%.  All those states are much larger than Iowa and are primary states, which means-- if I'm not mistaken-- GOP rules weigh primary states more than caucus states.  Paul would have to finish much better in SC, FL and NH than single digits if he even stands at chance at the nomination.

It's entirely possible to win Iowa and then the next week lose New Hampshire, the week after that lose South Carolina and then the week after that lose Florida and be finished.  That means by February, unless he manages a couple second place finishes after Iowa, Ron Paul will stand no chance at the nomination once again.  In fact, winning Iowa is not that great of a bellwether for the GOP nomination.  Take a look at past results:

1980: George H. W. Bush won Iowa with 32%.  Reagan won nomination despite losing Iowa.
1988: Bob Dole won Iowa with 37% .  George H. W. Bush won nomination even though he finished third in Iowa.
2008: Mike Huckabee won Iowa huge with 34%.  John McCain won nomination even though he finished 4th in Iowa with only 13%.

Of course if Paul does win Iowa, the Paultards will claim that this is proof he should be the nominee and that they are being screwed out of the coronation by a vast conspiracy contrived by the media, the GOP itself, Barack Obama, Big Government and people who hate freedom. Even though history shows people win Iowa and lose the nomination all the time, it won't matter to them.  It all will be one big conspiracy against Freedom Fighter Ron Paul.

Please Oh Please

Josh Marshall writes today that he is seeing lots of indicators pointing to the conclusion that Newt Gingrich is here to stay.
We probably need to wait until mid-December to know whether Newt’s surge is real or just another boom and bust. But it seems different; it feels different. That’s not much to go on. But we do have some evidence that it is different.
I so hope he's right.  

Thrice Married Family Values Crusader
Just a few short days ago Gingrich was polling in the single digits.  His campaign was spending more money at stores on Fifth Ave. for his third wife than on campaign costs.  Now after weeks of GOP voters testing out anyone else but Mitt Romney to be their nominee, it looks like Newt Gingrich is all that's left.

I'm comfortable with President Obama facing any of the current crop of GOP candidates and beating them.  I think his hardest race would be Romney simply because I know once the primary is over Mitt will try his best to return to his moderate self.  Beating a guy that himself enacted an individual insurance mandate while governor and who believes God lives on Planet Kolob shouldn't be that difficult, however.  It won't be easy, just not that difficult.

There was never any chance Bachmann, Ron Paul, Santorum, Huntsman or Herman Cain would have ever won the nomination so commenting on them is pointless.  Oprah has a better chance at being the Republican nominee than any of them.

But I can't think of anything better than Newt Gingrich winning the nomination.  Seriously, why don't Republicans just run Bob Dole again or McCain?  Better yet, George H. W. Bush still has 4 more years of eligibility left.  Why not just draft him?  Now if only the Dems could pickup about 30 house seats, I'd feel a lot better off.

This Week's Not-Romney


Who possibly could be this week's Republican frontrunner, aka "Not-Romney?"

It's none other than one of the most disgraced Members of Congress ever, or better known as the former Speaker of the House, the man that led the impeachment charge against Clinton while he was having his own extra-marital affair, Newt Gingrich.

You know it's bad when Republicans are seeking out blasts from their impeachment pasts just to nominate anyone besides Big Love Mitt Romney.

Now remember, this in no way demonstrates the lack of a credible candidate, party in-fighting, a party controlled by wing nuts or anything other than the clear fact the GOP is, at its core, built around moral values, small government and fiscal conservatism.

Big Night for Progressives

Ohio is probably the biggest story. The Republican anti-union bill was soundly rejected by the voters of that state. Organized labor has to walk away feeling a foot taller from this.  Millions of dollars and a huge ground game were poured into Ohio and the result was extremely positive for their movement.  Going into last night, I expected, if not guaranteed such a result.

Mississippi's anti-birth control ("personhood") defeat was a pleasant surprise, however.

"Personhood" was a GOP-designed initiative that legally defined life from the moment of conception.  Such a definition would have outlawed abortion in all cases including rape and incest.  It also would have made some forms of birth control like the morning after pill and IUD's illegal.  Voters rejected it by a large margin.

Kentucky Democrats also won big.  As of right now, Republicans did pick up one Virginia Senate seat.  They needed two seats to swing the balance of the senate into their favor, however.

Not a bad tally for an off-year election heading into 2012.

Two Words: Alan Keyes

I can tell you right now the logic behind many Republicans who are jumping for joy that Herman Cain might be the nominee. They are hoping that by having a black GOP nominee it will offset the black vote.  Thus, without the 95% black support Obama enjoyed in the last election, he'll lose.  It's a good thought, I'll give 'em that.  But it won't work.  This sort of logic has been tried before by the GOP and it failed.  I have two words for Republicans who think it's a brilliant way to divide the minority vote against Obama and get a Republican victory: ALAN KEYES.

Game Changer

Democrat Jerry Costello of the IL-12 has decided not to run for reelection.  He's my home rep.  This is a total game changer.  This was a very safe Democratic seat.

Probably the biggest Republican name I'm seeing thrown around to run in what will be a new district and an empty seat is Jason Plummer.  He was the GOP's 2010 Lt. Gov. nominee in Illinois.

Winners, Losers of the Freak Show

Last night's freak show demonstrated two undeniables. This is a race between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. From what I saw Romney looked cool and calm. He even defended Social Security and hit Perry right back with some George Bush lines on job creation. That is general election material no doubt.

Perry, on the other hand, appeared to be trying too hard. Yet he said all the things necessary to win the GOP: he loves to execute people, Obama is a liar, etc., etc.

The other contenders are just there to be seen on teevee. Bachmann is done. Ron Paul ruined any chance he might have had, which was none really, when he said he feared a wall on the Mexican border not to keep people out but to keep Americans from escaping with capital. Newt is a has been. Santorum is possessed by demons. Herman Cain stands not a chance in Jim Crow that he'll ever be nominated. And Huntsman did the unthinkable thus ruining his chances forever when he said science was real. Yes, these people are nuts. No doubt about it.

Everybody Knows, except the people calling the shots

I've long read Atrios, who I believe goes by Duncan Black when he's not on the internets, for his quick summation of very important items. No one can quite take a huge, boring paragraph of needlessness and shrink it down to one sentence better than him. He's superb at what he does. He also probably is clueless when it comes to politics.

Now I don't mean writing about politics. I mean working in politics. Many of you might not realize it but there is a huge difference between writing about politics and working in politics. I've done both. And it's much easier to write about politics, trust me. Again, don't get me wrong, Atrios does a heck of a job writing about politics. Maybe the best in the biz. But he's never actually worked in politics and never been in a position where he has to choose between listening to a union boss, the party chairman, a central committee person, a single mom on welfare or your chief of staff. When you get in a position like that, and you can only choose one, you end up making a lot of people mad. Alas, that's how it goes. That is the nature of modern American politics. Surely Atrios knows all that and I don't mean to hippy-punch him too much. I just felt the need to note that those who usually make a living off of being critical have never had to do the job they so criticize.

With all that said, Atrios pens one of the greatest analyses of our day and he does it with one sentence: "If you make the case that Republican issues are important, you're making the case for...Republicans."

Alright, so maybe not ever working in politics has made him a much better adviser than anyone else currently working at the White House.  Somebody please listen to this guy...

WH May Offer Support to Home Refinancing Plan

This is the best news I've heard in quite a while.
The Obama administration is considering further actions to strengthen the housing market, but the bar is high: plans must help a broad swath of homeowners, stimulate the economy and cost next to nothing.

One proposal would allow millions of homeowners with government-backed mortgages to refinance them at today’s lower interest rates, about 4 percent, according to two people briefed on the administration’s discussions who asked not to be identified because they were not allowed to talk about the information.

A wave of refinancing could be a strong stimulus to the economy, because it would lower consumers’ mortgage bills right away and allow them to spend elsewhere. But such a sweeping change could face opposition from the regulator who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and from investors in government-backed mortgage bonds.
I think the resistance from Fannie and Freddie can and will be worked out if the president so desires. And why wouldn't he? This is the equivalent of an $85 billion stimulus every year. Surely the president supports that.

Alas, though, it's never that simple. If I recall correctly, the White House has tried numerous times to create some sort of refinancing effort for homeowners and never had much success. Besides that, anything that might spur economic growth and help out middle class America will most assuredly get blocked by Republicans in congress. Their goal is not to help middle America and certainly not to help this president. They are simply rooting for failure all around in hopes it ups their chances in taking back the White House next year. And if they do win, they still wouldn't dare support anything that might help middle America. Heck the last time they were in the White House, they had no problems bailing out the banks and the Wall St. fat cats. There's no reason to believe they'll do anything different if given another shot.

As far as their Hoping for Failure platform, it's sure not registering with the voters at all.

People Steal From Me

It is common belief, albeit standard thinking, among Republican folk that Barack Obama used organizations like ACORN to steal the 2008 election.

There are many reasons for Republicans to believe such. One is because on any given day, Fox News will devote unlimited time to conspiracy theories about the president being a Manchurian Candidate who is only in office because of ACORN and slightly smaller-- but still very scary-- terror groups like the Black Panthers. Fox has even run stories about the president having some sort of secret brain surgery to further add to their Manchurian stolen election conspiracy claims.

Another reason why Republicans believe that when they lose elections it's only because it was stolen is because they really believe they are True Americans and their ideology is not only popular but agreed upon by a large majority of America.  How many times have we heard the term "center right nation?"  Fox plays a huge role in this too.  To be certain, Fox News is always telling them that America is center right and their Rasmussen polling backs it up.

The only way for the people who make up a majority of America; and whose ideology is accepted by an overwhelming crowd of voters to lose is for the election to be stolen from them.  There's no other way for them to explain  it.  Democrats cheated.

It's not that they are unpopular and that they really don't represent the views of Americans, it's that Democrats used racist terror groups to steal the election.  If you don't believe me just read what the Republican Governor of Maine says:

“If you want to get really honest, this is about how the Democrats have managed to steal elections from Maine people, Webster told a columnist for the Portland Press Herald in a piece published Friday. “Many of us believe that the Democrats intentionally steal elections.”

Get it? Not that Obama is popular and actually won the election outright. Democrats steal.  Is it just me or does the GOP become more and more like that song Pretty Fly For a White Guy with every passing week?

This Is How Dems Lose the Messaging Battle

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 4:  Representative J...Image by Getty Images via @daylife
Jerry Costello is my representative. I know the guy. He'll be just fine in any election. So why Republicans are coming after him with Medicare messaging is odd. Maybe it's because the new Illinois map changes everything and John Shimkus is going to run against him. It's possible I suppose.

But what I want to highlight, in many of the same ways Greg Sargent has, is the content of the ad.  Republicans are trying to say that by voting against Rep. Ryan's budget plan that turns Medicare into a private voucher system, Costello is, by his no vote, allowing the social safety net of Medicare to collapse.

Yes Republicans running on the fact that America has a social safety net is monumental I know.  Agreeably, this is quite an odd ad for Republicans to run.  Not only did the GOP in both the House and Senate vote to pass the Ryan Plan, they voted to officially voucherize Medicare and end it as we know it.  So you would think the people who just voted to do away with Medicare wouldn't be bashing someone for supposedly ending Medicare, right?

But Republicans don't care.  They don't care about how ridiculous this looks.  They don't care about the facts supporting their ad.  They only care about the sensation their ad will produce with senior citizens-- you know the people who actually vote and use Medicare. Instead of being appalled that people who voted to do away with Medicare would try to bash someone for an insolvency that is decades down the road, create an ad just as sensational in response.

Create an ad talking about how Republicans want to back their cars over your grandma.  Sure it's not true but it will be on par with the crap the GOP is running.  It's either going to come to a point where both sides will agree to end the charade or all of our grandmas are going to be dead.  It's an easy game to play.  It's even easier when you want to win it.
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Return to the Mailbag

It's been a while since I've posted some of my reader emails. Usually it's to poke fun at the quality of mail I receive. This time I'm going to do it to answer a few questions posed by readers.

Reader SY writes:
Chris, as I recall you were nearly spot on for the 2008 election. Who do you think will seek and win the GOP nod this time around. And what are their chances against your man BO?

Backed up in Cleveland,
Well Backed up in Cleveland, glad you asked. As I recall I was way off last presidential cycle. I vividly remember saying it was Gore's year. I thought he would get the nod and select Obama as his VP. I saw that as an unbeatable ticket. By August of 2007 I finally realized Gore was not going to do it. After that I really thought Hillary had it tied up but thought if Obama jumped in he would be incredibly hard to beat.  Though you might be referring to my general election analysis in which I would put my map against anybody's.  I missed Obama's electoral college total by one.

I also remember laughing at all the pundits who said the Hillary and Obama primary would destroy Democratic moral with infighting. They were way off because Democrats were so united to take back the White House we would have supported whoever our candidate was. Being the Obama supporter I was since day one, I would have had no problems voting for Hillary in the general had she won the primary. And the millions of Hillary supporters, obviously, were pleased to oblige.

What Republican will seek and win the primary? I have no clue. At lot can happen in a year. Currently Romney seems to be atop the leader board. But he was at the very same place in 2007 as well. He's a moderate that has tried very hard to say the necessary crazy things to get past a Republican primary but he has yet to overcome his actual record on social issues and health care. My guess is he'll meet the same fate this time around as well. Not to mention, I don't see a Mormon winning a Republican primary any time soon.

Palin? She definitely has the wacko support. Other than that this woman is a complete joke. There's no reason we should ever consider a Palin presidency. The same applies to Michelle Bachmann.

Herman Cain? No chance a black man would ever make it out of a GOP primary. I know Republicans think it would be a great idea and a great way to split up the black vote for which I will offer two words, Alan Keyes. The Illinois GOP thought the very same thing to beat Obama in 2004. Black folks stuck to their Dem ticket.

Pawlenty? Very possible.

Ron Paul? Won't happen. Republicans no more want Ron Paul leading them than they want Oprah.

The chances of beating President Obama? A lot can happen in a year. But if the election were held tomorrow there isn't a candidate that would beat him.  I'm no soothsayer and don't want to be.  If I were I sure wouldn't be writing on a blog.  I'd be at the teletrack watching the ponies. 

The Sheep Speak

Speaker John Boehner says losing the 40-year Republican stronghold of NY-26 was more about third party candidates and a not so good GOP candidate than about Medicare.

That's fine. He may be correct. I don't doubt at all the third party candidate helped the Democrats. Like I said yesterday, anyone who says this one special election in NY is a bellwether is foolish.  Given that the Senate GOP voted to end Medicare yesterday, I also don't doubt Republicans view losing NY-26 as a small anomaly.  If they thought otherwise they had ample opportunity yesterday to not vote in favor of abolishing Medicare.

I'm perfectly content going into an election year with Republicans thinking privatizing Medicare isn't a big electoral issue.

But I Thought Voter Fraud Gave the Democrat the Election??

Tuesday night the Democratic challenger, JoAnne Kloppenburg, to incumbent Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice David Prosser was leading by 204 votes. Fearing their guy lost, Republicans immediately went to the media and claimed Democratic voter fraud was the reason.  They had absolutely no proof of any actual cases of fraud, they just knew their guy lost and when they lose it's only because Democrats cheat.

Yesterday Republican Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus, a former staffer to incumbent Judge Prosser, found on her computer over 14,000 uncounted votes from a Republican-leaning city. The votes put Prosser ahead of his challenger by over 7,000 votes.

Rather dubious circumstances to be certain.  But mistakes happen and all one can do is take the Republican county clerk at her word that she did indeed forget to save a spreadsheet full of Republican votes.  But could you imagine the hysterical reaction from Republicans if a Democratic county clerk had found on her computer thousands of uncounted Democratic votes???  Holy cow, it would be total hell to pay.

Fortunately we don't have to go back very far-- just five months-- to find out what would happen if a similar incident happened and Democratic votes suddenly appeared.

It's not that I want Democrats to now start yelling and screaming fraud just so we can counter act the GOP.  No not at all.  I just want to point out the differences in mentality and the paranoid sickness that now controls the GOP.  Heck, Fox News still presents ACORN and Black Panthers as stealing the election for Obama.

It's all the same, no matter the story.  Republicans are told they are Real Americans, from Real America.  When they dislike the president, it's because they are Patriots and the president is doing the country wrong.  When others dislike the president, especially a Republican president, it's because they hate America.  They are told, by dishonest media that knowingly misconstrues data, to show their policies are popular and that they are always acting in the best interest of America.

When you are told this stuff day in and day out, you eventually believe it.  Not only do you believe that because you are Republican you are a true Patriot that wants to save America, but you begin to treat people who disagree with you not as different opinions but as people who are enemies that want to destroy your country.  After all, if you truly believe yourself as Real America and that your political agenda is popularly supported by an overwhelming majority of the public, then naturally those who disagree with your politics are wrong and must be stopped at all costs.  It is a sickness.  There's no other way to describe it.

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